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The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, Adm. Brad Cooper, recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness, according to two sources with knowledge of his position. Why it matters: The recommendation by Cooper, the commander of the U.S. Military Central Command (CENTCOM), together with other advisers impacted President Trump's decision on Friday to pause U.S. strikes against Iran , the sources said. It was an

Some progressive Democrats are fuming that the party's new schedule for 2028 presidential primaries could make it harder for one of their own to win the party's nomination. A powerful Democratic National Committee panel voted Friday to kick off the primary in South Carolina — the state where progressive icon Bernie Sanders suffered landslide losses in the 2016 and 2020 primaries. Why it matters: The panel's decision came with Democrats already divided over a wave of contentious 2026 primaries th

President Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Tuesday, a White House official confirmed to Axios. The big picture: The visit gives Zelensky a chance to shore up support in Washington after the death of one of Ukraine's congressional champions. It also comes as Russia intensifies its missile campaign. Trump and Zelensky last met earlier this month at the NATO summit in Turkey, where they discussed strengthening Ukraine's air defenses and diplomatic efforts

Democrats are learning a hard lesson Republicans know all too well: The party out of power doesn't just ride the anti-incumbency wave — it can also get swept up in it. Why it matters: The populist energy surging through the left after President Trump's return to the White House is roiling Democratic primaries and fueling establishment fears about the party's general election chances. Just ask Senate Republicans how that went for them in 2010 , 2012 and 2022 . "We saw it in Missouri , we saw it i

Local backlash and reliability concerns are challenging the vision of an AI boom built quickly using large off-grid data centers. Why it matters: If giant projects stumble, trillions of dollars in AI investment and the industry's plans to rapidly expand data centers could be at risk. The big picture: In an effort to speed AI development, some companies are building data centers powered mainly by onsite generation rather than waiting years to connect to the electric grid. There are 59 data center

President Trump told Axios on Monday that he decided to pause U.S. strikes on Iran in order to give negotiations another chance, but stressed that he could order a return to expanded military operations if diplomacy fails. Why it matters: The current negotiations are focused on a new deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and relaunch talks on a comprehensive nuclear deal. The talks are being conducted mainly between Iran and Oman. But Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Trump's envoys, Steve Witkof

A small but growing number of Democrats are embracing their own version of "America First" in response to Donald Trump 's ongoing war with Iran in partnership with Israel. Why it matters: Trump's war is scrambling the politics of a slogan he once owned, fracturing the right even as some Democrats — including potential 2028 presidential candidates — embrace it. Driving the news: Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Senate candidate in Michigan who campaigned with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York

Data : The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals The midterm elections are 100 days out. Political reporter Hans Nichols, lead author of the Hill Leaders newsletter, shares his intel on the state of the races: The big picture: The House environment favors the Dems. The terrain favors Republicans. The same is broadly true on the Senate side — except the structural advantages are even greater for Republicans. THE HOUSE — currently 218 Rs, 212 Ds, 1 independent, and 4

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman heads to Washington this week to preview the company's most powerful AI yet, pushing for speedy approval of a model that just hacked a real company. Why it matters: He'll tout a model powerful enough to solve an 80-year-old math problem, breach another company's system unprompted and begin to make complex work more cost-efficient for U.S. business. What Sam will show: It does original science. An internal model solved the 80-year-old Erdős unit distance problem, the first p

President Trump directed the U.S. military not to conduct new strikes in Iran on Friday, breaking a nearly two-week streak of daily attacks, two sources with knowledge of the decision said. Why it matters: The president's directive came after he approved daily strikes over the previous 13 days. It is unclear if Trump's order on Friday was a one-off or whether the lull will continue. Trump's decision reflects both his willingness to provide more space for diplomacy and a recognition that — short

Democrats selected former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson on Saturday to challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins this fall after Graham Platner's embattled campaign ended. Why it matters: Jackson's selection is another win for the left flank of the Democratic party, which lined up behind another progressive candidate as their best shot at flipping one of the most important seats to win back Senate control. Driving the news: Delegates to a special nominating convention selected Jackson Saturd

With Congress on the sidelines, union contracts are among the strongest guardrails American workers have against artificial intelligence . Why it matters: Nearly 90% of the U.S. workforce lacks union representation, leaving about 130 million workers without that leverage as companies use AI to rewrite job descriptions and cut jobs. What they're saying: The only meaningful guardrails around workplace AI are happening "at the bargaining table , where workers are showing up and demanding protection

AI's impact on American life isn't just at work . It's also at home, where it's helping with dinner and bedtime, learning our routines, overhearing arguments and never clocking out. Why it matters: The AI debate has largely focused on jobs and productivity . But a quieter shift is unfolding at home , where AI is also evolving from an on-demand assistant into an always-on presence that remembers, anticipates and increasingly acts like a member of the family. "The barriers to entry for families —

Data: CBPP ; Map: Sara Wise/Axios American food assistance has been rocked by a regulatory earthquake while millions have been dropped from one of the nation's premier safety net programs, tightening the strain on food banks and state agencies. The big picture: As the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) continues to undergo a historic remolding, food banks say they're staring down a gap they can't fill. "We've been operating kind of in emergency management mode," says Terri Shoemake

President Trump used his speech at Friday's rescheduled White House Correspondents' Association Dinner to condemn the political violence that postponed the annual event — and in the next breath attack and insult the gathered press. The big picture: The president opened with jokes to the hundreds of assembled journalists and even made a little fun of himself, in a speech that started light — before descending into a litany of familiar complaints about reporters and prominent Democrats. Zoom out:

The U.S. and U.K. are planning to convene a high-level meeting in London next week that will focus on a potential international coalition to protect maritime shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, two European diplomats and two other sources with knowledge told Axios. Why it matters: The reopening of the strait for commercial shipping is a key element of any U.S. exit strategy from the war with Iran and of efforts to stabilize global energy markets. The itinerary and date are still under discussion a

South Carolina has been preliminarily tapped to hold the first Democratic presidential primary of 2028, as a key panel of party leaders picked the Palmetto State over Nevada on Friday after a contentious, racially fraught debate. Why it matters: It's a coup for Black leaders who argued the party's most loyal voters — represented by South Carolina's large Black population — deserved to have the first chance to weigh in on who should be Democrats' next presidential nominee. The vote by the Democra

The White House has found new legal ways to keep tariffs flowing . But it's not enough to fully replace the revenue from the import taxes the Supreme Court struck down. The intrigue: The administration's replacement tariffs would raise about $105 billion a year — replacing about 60% of the revenue lost when the Supreme Court invalidated the administration's emergency tariff regime, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget . Why it matters: The administration's new tariffs are

President Trump will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday, the Israeli Prime Minister's office said in a statement. Why it matters: Netanyahu has met with Trump in the Oval Office six times since Trump returned to office a year-and-a-half ago — more than any other world leader. But Netanyahu is deeply unpopular in Washington these days, among Democrats, Trump's close circle and the MAGA base. Trump is considering resuming major combat operations in Iran th

The wars in Iran and Ukraine show how the drone tech revolution makes it easier — and cheaper — to interrupt energy supplies by striking refineries and oil tankers. Why it matters: It's an important reason why oil traded at $100 per barrel this week and gasoline and diesel fuel are so expensive these days. Looking ahead, the way drones are reshaping modern warfare has high stakes for how policymakers and companies view new and existing power grids, pipelines, liquefied natural gas ports and plen

We ask almost every AI architect and leader the same thing in private: What AI risk worries you most? Almost all of them fire back the same response: a killer pathogen, spreading too silently, widely and quickly to stop. Why it matters: The rare agreement among AI experts flows from the belief these advanced models could help a bad actor create a deadly pathogen before the government and industry perfect detection and prevention systems. This isn't a likely scenario. And some of AI's biggest opt

The Trump administration this week staked out a new position that could reshape its approach to AI policy, accusing Chinese companies of stealing U.S. technology even as it defends open AI development. Why it matters: That distinction could become the foundation for U.S. action against Chinese AI companies without broadly restricting the open-weight models that businesses, researchers and startups increasingly rely on. Driving the news: The Trump administration is backing open-weight models whil

She has President Trump 's endorsement and is a sympathetic figure after the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham . As Graham's temporary replacement, she's a symbol of the political brand he built over more than two decades in the Senate. Driving the news: Even so, Darline Graham faces an uphill battle to win a full Senate term in November, Republicans in D.C. and her home state of South Carolina tell Axios. South Carolina's rapidly approaching Aug. 11 primary has become a test of whether

"Choke point" is having a moment. Why it matters: The term is an increasingly popular shorthand for the bottlenecks tying up the oil market and the AI buildout — and sometimes the entire economy — as the old global economic order gives way to intensifying competition and outright war. Where it stands: The latest choke point is in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has been routing more oil there via pipeline, bypassing the OG choke point in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, Iranian-backed Houthi militants are t

The pace of AI development combined with soaring compute costs is squeezing the AI researchers responsible for evaluating frontier models — just as those models' capabilitie s are becoming harder to measure. Why it matters: When safety testing can't keep pace, models capable of hacking companies or aiding in the development of bioweapons could reach the public before anyone knows what they can do. Last week's breach of Hugging Face, carried out autonomously by OpenAI's models in the middle of sa

House GOP leaders are turning up the heat on Senate Republicans, calling on them to move quickly on the House's $95 billion reconciliation package despite resistance from Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.). Why it matters: Before they split town, House leaders left some instructions for their Senate colleagues. "The Senate needs to move on reconciliation before November, and I think the pressure from the American people is going to be unbearable if they refuse to act," NRCC Chair Richard Hudson

Democrats are indicating to their Republican counterparts that they are prepared to vote as early as next week on a Russia sanctions package that includes an 11th-hour demand from President Trump that the bill also include Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. Why it matters: It would mark a rare bipartisan breakthrough on legislation to help end the war in Ukraine in a Senate that has spent much of the year engaged in partisan combat . It also would show that Majority Leader John

The Trump administration announced a new round of tariffs up to 12.5% on 60 trading partners on Thursday, preventing a lapse in import taxes as a temporary tariff program nears expiration. Why it matters: It shows the White House's determination to preserve its tariff agenda by turning to new trade laws as earlier authorities expire or face legal challenges. The new tariffs take effect at 12:01am ET on Friday, precisely when the temporary duties end. It's been one of the busiest weeks for Presid

The U.S. government will withdraw subpoenas of New York Times journalists over their reporting on President Trump's Qatari-gifted jet , the Department of Justice said in a Thursday court hearing. Why it matters: The Trump administration backed down in its battle with the media on the eve of the rescheduled White House Correspondents' Association Dinner, where the president is expected to speak. Driving the news: U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian reportedly grilled the Trump administration in

Data: CDC ; Map: Brad Jennings/Axios. Note: Estimated rates calculated using CDC case range midpoints and 2025 U.S. Census population estimates. Cases of cyclosporiasis have now been reported in at least 41 states, and infection rates continue to increase in the five states where the CDC has declared an outbreak. The big picture: Although some cases of the diarrhea-inducing illness are reported each year, the outbreak will make 2026 the worst year on U.S. record for this food-borne parasitic inf

Vance Boelter, the man who dressed up like a police officer and killed former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark last summer , was given two life sentences followed by 40 years in prison by a federal judge Thursday. The big picture: The sentence puts Boelter behind bars without a possibility of parole and brings some resolution to a politically motivated crime that rocked Minnesota. Catch up quick: Boelter, 58, pleaded guilty in June as part of a deal with U.S. Attorney

President Trump claimed Thursday the new nuclear deal the U.S. signed with Saudi Arabia will not include uranium enrichment and requires the kingdom normalize its relations with Israel. Why it matters: Trump is responding to two of the bigger criticisms of the deal: that it could open the door to nuclear enrichment and that Washington gave up leverage to push a peace deal with Israel . What they are saying: "The Civil Nuclear Deal (There will be no enrichment of material!) being made between the

House Democrats are publicly and privately pushing for changes at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee after it spent more than $500,000 backing a failed primary candidate in Arizona. Why it matters: The House Democratic campaign arm has faced persistent criticism this year from its members for getting more heavily involved in primaries than in past election cycles. "I don't think they should get involved in primaries — I've said that before, I've said that directly to them," said Rep

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Treasury Department; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios The relentless run-up in Treasury yields reflects the globe's new economic reality: It takes a much richer reward to persuade investors to lend their money, especially for the longer run. Why it matters: Unlike previous bond sell-offs driven by inflation fears, this one reflects a world in which governments and companies are scrambling for enormous amounts of capital to finance wide fiscal deficits, t

Data: Department of Labor; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios The last time this few Americans were filing for unemployment benefits, Creedence Clearwater Revival topped the music charts , while "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid" was the star of the box office. Driving the news: Only 187,000 people filed new claims for unemployment insurance benefits last week, pointing to an astoundingly low level of firings across the economy . It was the lowest since September 1969. The labor force was much smaller th

President Trump told Axios on Thursday that he's seriously considering restarting major combat operations in Iran — including strikes that would be bigger than the ones carried out during Operation Epic Fury. Why it matters: In a brief interview, Trump acknowledged that such a decision would have consequences and stressed he hasn't made a determination yet. Trump didn't give a deadline for his decision. Two other U.S. officials confirmed no call has been made and no new orders have been given to

The House on Thursday passed a resolution to rein in President Trump's military campaign in Iran. Why it matters: It's Congress' second successful rebuke of Trump's Iran war effort, reflecting growing GOP unease with the conflict. Four Republicans — Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Tom Barrett (Mich.), Warren Davidson (Ohio), Thomas Massie (Ky.) — voted in support of the measure along with every Democrat. The 214-208 vote to direct Trump to end hostilities is largely symbolic and does not carry th