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What Axios' Alex Thompson is hearing from Democratic insiders about the party's most likely 2028 Democratic nominees, as told to Jim VandeHei for his weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter: 1. Kamala Harris. She is far ahead of every other contender with Black voters, still the most important voting bloc in a Democratic primary. Her allies argue that no one else is as prepared for a national campaign. She was a better candidate in 2024 than in 2020 and is working hard to be a better, more authentic, le

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said Monday that he has "never advocated" for a ban on open-weight AI models , rejecting accusations that his lab is seeking to shield its closed-model business from competition. Why it matters: Anthropic has become the most prominent holdout from a new industry push to defend open-weight AI, after Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Google, OpenAI and dozens of other companies signed a letter urging Washington not to restrict the technology. The push was triggered by the shock d

President Trump's economic assault on Iran has drawn a fraction of the attention devoted to his bombing campaign, even as senior U.S. officials believe it may ultimately do more damage to the regime in Tehran. Why it matters: U.S. intelligence and open-source media reports point to a deepening economic crisis inside Iran, including gasoline shortages in one of the world's most oil-rich countries. "The Iranians want to stop being bombed and they want money," a senior administration official said.

Data: MIT IT FutureTech and the University of Queensland ; Chart: Herb Scribner/Axios There is a one-in-five chance of AI gaining dangerous weapons capabilities or causing mass harm that could kill millions in the next five years, per global experts surveyed for a recent MIT study . Why it matters: The findings add to the growing debate over AI safety and cybersecurity as governments and companies race to deploy increasingly capable systems. Last week's news of an OpenAI model breaking containme

President Trump's economic sales pitch is colliding with voters' sour moods on high prices and the economy as the 2026 midterms loom. Why it matters: Economic frustration is giving Democrats an opening on the issue that often decides elections — and could help them erase Republicans' narrow congressional majorities in November. Trump has previously dismissed economic concerns, assuring voters that prices will come down and that affordability is an issue made up by political rivals to hurt his ad

President Trump told Axios on Monday that he decided to pause U.S. strikes on Iran in order to give negotiations another chance, but stressed that he could order a return to expanded military operations if diplomacy fails. Why it matters: The current negotiations are focused on a new deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and relaunch talks on a comprehensive nuclear deal. The talks are being conducted mainly between Iran and Oman, but Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Trump's envoys, Steve Witkof

The small businesses that brought two high-profile legal challenges to President Trump's trade agenda are suing to block the latest round of tariffs. Why it matters: The lawsuits set up another legal test of Trump's tariff agenda after courts this year rejected one tariff regime and cast doubt on another. What's new: One lawsuit was filed on behalf of Burlap & Barrel, which previously challenged Trump's temporary Section 122 tariffs , and watch retailer Collective Horology. The other was brought

The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed. The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week. If the Federal Open Market Committee were to do so, it would suggest a new era in which the central bank is less predictable

Canadian travel to the U.S. fell 25% last year, according to a new Canadian government report, which says early 2026 data show the decline has persisted. Why it matters: The report provides some of the clearest measures yet of the economic cost to the U.S. tourism industry after trade tensions, tariffs and President Trump's repeated " 51st state " comments led many Canadians to vacation elsewhere. "Following the change in the U.S. administration in early 2025 and the implementation of America Fi

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) demanded that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) verbally address constituents and demonstrate his ability to serve or resign his seat in a blunt letter sent to the senator and his staff. The big picture: It's been more than 40 days since 84-year-old conservative stalwart McConnell has appeared outside of pictures released by his office after being hospitalized. His lengthy absence and past health scares are fueling speculation about his capacity to serve. Driving the ne

Data: International Energy Agency ; Note: In terrawatt-hours; Chart: Amy Harder/Axios A recent United Nations call to power data centers with renewable energy highlights a central tension in the AI boom: Renewables are rising, but so is reliance on fossil fuels. Why it matters: Electricity demand for data centers is projected to at least double in the next four years, and where that power comes from will influence investments — and the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions. Driving the news: Un

Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Donald Trump in the Oval Office Tuesday for the eighth time since the president returned to office. But the Israeli prime minister arrives at the White House weaker and less influential than the previous seven times. Why it matters: On Feb. 28, Trump and Netanyahu went to war together and it looked like there was no daylight between them. But exactly five months later, their interests have diverged more than ever — and bad blood and frustration have deepened as

President Trump 's controversial "self-deportation" program, which pays unauthorized immigrants to leave the U.S., is on pace to account for more than 200,000 departures, according to internal data shared with Axios. Why it matters: Launched last year alongside a multimillion-dollar ad campaign, the initiative is virtually the only carrot in an aggressive immigration crackdown that has been long on sticks. Through July 16, the nearly $600 million program — dubbed Project Homecoming by the Depart

👉 Watch a video version of this column. Republicans didn't decide to become President Trump's party . They surrendered to him, one stage at a time, over a decade, in plain sight. Democrats swear that socialism's growing grip on their party is different , and can be contained . The early signals suggest otherwise. Why it matters: Party transformations follow a predictable six-stage evolution — recoil, squint, rationalize, submit, amplify, and purge. Each stage has language you can hear long befor

Democrats are learning a hard lesson Republicans know all too well: The party out of power doesn't just ride the anti-incumbency wave — it can also get swept up in it. Why it matters: The populist energy surging through the left after President Trump's return to the White House is roiling Democratic primaries and fueling establishment fears about the party's general election chances. Just ask Senate Republicans how that went for them in 2010 , 2012 and 2022 . "We saw it in Missouri , we saw it i

Data: Company reports, Funda via "Key Context"; Chart: Ben Berkowitz/Axios AI revenue is accelerating so fast that it's starting to dwarf some of the world's most recognizable brands. Why it matters: AI infrastructure spending forecasts in the trillions of dollars start to make at least a little more sense when investors see how they're paying off. By the numbers: OpenAI and Anthropic, combined, are on track for an annual revenue rate of about $120 billion, "Key Context" Substack author Tae Kim

Local backlash and reliability concerns are challenging the vision of an AI boom built quickly using large off-grid data centers. Why it matters: If giant projects stumble, trillions of dollars in AI investment and the industry's plans to rapidly expand data centers could be at risk. The big picture: In an effort to speed AI development, some companies are building data centers powered mainly by onsite generation rather than waiting years to connect to the electric grid. There are 59 data center

Some progressive Democrats are fuming that the party's new schedule for 2028 presidential primaries could make it harder for one of their own to win the party's nomination. A powerful Democratic National Committee panel voted Friday to kick off the primary in South Carolina — the state where progressive icon Bernie Sanders suffered landslide losses in the 2016 and 2020 primaries. Why it matters: The panel's decision came with Democrats already divided over a wave of contentious 2026 primaries th

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is pulling off something today's Republicans rarely attempt: telling President Trump "no." Why it matters: Pressure from Trump and the MAGA base is piling up on Thune (R-S.D.), especially over a voter ID bill, but he has an important insurance policy: GOP senators have his back. "I think he's got strong support. I read all the stories, but I think mostly that's made up by reporters," Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) told Axios. "Leaders absorb some of the punishment, b

A small but growing number of Democrats are embracing their own version of "America First" in response to Donald Trump 's ongoing war with Iran in partnership with Israel. Why it matters: Trump's war is scrambling the politics of a slogan he once owned, fracturing the right even as some Democrats — including potential 2028 presidential candidates — embrace it. Driving the news: Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Senate candidate in Michigan who campaigned with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York

The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, Adm. Brad Cooper, recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness, according to two sources with knowledge of his position. Why it matters: The recommendation by Cooper, the commander of the U.S. Military Central Command (CENTCOM), together with other advisers impacted President Trump's decision on Friday to pause U.S. strikes against Iran , the sources said. It was an

President Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Tuesday, a White House official confirmed to Axios. The big picture: The visit gives Zelensky a chance to shore up support in Washington after the death of one of Ukraine's congressional champions. It also comes as Russia intensifies its missile campaign. Trump and Zelensky last met earlier this month at the NATO summit in Turkey, where they discussed strengthening Ukraine's air defenses and diplomatic efforts

Data : The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals The midterm elections are 100 days out. Political reporter Hans Nichols, lead author of the Hill Leaders newsletter, shares his intel on the state of the races: The big picture: The House environment favors the Democrats. The terrain favors Republicans. The same is broadly true on the Senate side — except the structural advantages are even greater for Republicans. THE HOUSE — currently 218 Rs, 212 Ds, 1 independent,

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman heads to Washington this week to preview the company's most powerful AI yet, pushing for speedy approval of a model that just hacked a real company. Why it matters: He'll tout a model powerful enough to solve an 80-year-old math problem, breach another company's system unprompted and begin to make complex work more cost-efficient for U.S. business. What Sam will show: It does original science. An internal model solved the 80-year-old Erdős unit distance problem, the first p

With Congress on the sidelines, union contracts are among the strongest guardrails American workers have against artificial intelligence . Why it matters: Nearly 90% of the U.S. workforce lacks union representation, leaving about 130 million workers without that leverage as companies use AI to rewrite job descriptions and cut jobs. What they're saying: The only meaningful guardrails around workplace AI are happening "at the bargaining table , where workers are showing up and demanding protection

President Trump directed the U.S. military not to conduct new strikes in Iran on Friday, breaking a nearly two-week streak of daily attacks, two sources with knowledge of the decision said. Why it matters: The president's directive came after he approved daily strikes over the previous 13 days. It is unclear if Trump's order on Friday was a one-off or whether the lull will continue. Trump's decision reflects both his willingness to provide more space for diplomacy and a recognition that — short

Democrats selected former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson on Saturday to challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins this fall after Graham Platner's embattled campaign ended. Why it matters: Jackson's selection is another win for the left flank of the Democratic party, which lined up behind another progressive candidate as their best shot at flipping one of the most important seats to win back Senate control. Driving the news: Delegates to a special nominating convention selected Jackson Saturd

AI's impact on American life isn't just at work . It's also at home, where it's helping with dinner and bedtime, learning our routines, overhearing arguments and never clocking out. Why it matters: The AI debate has largely focused on jobs and productivity . But a quieter shift is unfolding at home , where AI is also evolving from an on-demand assistant into an always-on presence that remembers, anticipates and increasingly acts like a member of the family. "The barriers to entry for families —

Data: CBPP ; Map: Sara Wise/Axios American food assistance has been rocked by a regulatory earthquake while millions have been dropped from one of the nation's premier safety net programs, tightening the strain on food banks and state agencies. The big picture: As the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) continues to undergo a historic remolding, food banks say they're staring down a gap they can't fill. "We've been operating kind of in emergency management mode," says Terri Shoemake

President Trump used his speech at Friday's rescheduled White House Correspondents' Association Dinner to condemn the political violence that postponed the annual event — and in the next breath attack and insult the gathered press. The big picture: The president opened with jokes to the hundreds of assembled journalists and even made a little fun of himself, in a speech that started light — before descending into a litany of familiar complaints about reporters and prominent Democrats. Zoom out:

The U.S. and U.K. are planning to convene a high-level meeting in London next week that will focus on a potential international coalition to protect maritime shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, two European diplomats and two other sources with knowledge told Axios. Why it matters: The reopening of the strait for commercial shipping is a key element of any U.S. exit strategy from the war with Iran and of efforts to stabilize global energy markets. The itinerary and date are still under discussion a

South Carolina has been preliminarily tapped to hold the first Democratic presidential primary of 2028, as a key panel of party leaders picked the Palmetto State over Nevada on Friday after a contentious, racially fraught debate. Why it matters: It's a coup for Black leaders who argued the party's most loyal voters — represented by South Carolina's large Black population — deserved to have the first chance to weigh in on who should be Democrats' next presidential nominee. The vote by the Democra

The White House has found new legal ways to keep tariffs flowing . But it's not enough to fully replace the revenue from the import taxes the Supreme Court struck down. The intrigue: The administration's replacement tariffs would raise about $105 billion a year — replacing about 60% of the revenue lost when the Supreme Court invalidated the administration's emergency tariff regime, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget . Why it matters: The administration's new tariffs are

President Trump will meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Tuesday, the Israeli Prime Minister's office said in a statement. Why it matters: Netanyahu has met with Trump in the Oval Office six times since Trump returned to office a year-and-a-half ago — more than any other world leader. But Netanyahu is deeply unpopular in Washington these days, among Democrats, Trump's close circle and the MAGA base. Trump is considering resuming major combat operations in Iran th

The wars in Iran and Ukraine show how the drone tech revolution makes it easier — and cheaper — to interrupt energy supplies by striking refineries and oil tankers. Why it matters: It's an important reason why oil traded at $100 per barrel this week and gasoline and diesel fuel are so expensive these days. Looking ahead, the way drones are reshaping modern warfare has high stakes for how policymakers and companies view new and existing power grids, pipelines, liquefied natural gas ports and plen

We ask almost every AI architect and leader the same thing in private: What AI risk worries you most? Almost all of them fire back the same response: a killer pathogen, spreading too silently, widely and quickly to stop. Why it matters: The rare agreement among AI experts flows from the belief these advanced models could help a bad actor create a deadly pathogen before the government and industry perfect detection and prevention systems. This isn't a likely scenario. And some of AI's biggest opt

The Trump administration this week staked out a new position that could reshape its approach to AI policy, accusing Chinese companies of stealing U.S. technology even as it defends open AI development. Why it matters: That distinction could become the foundation for U.S. action against Chinese AI companies without broadly restricting the open-weight models that businesses, researchers and startups increasingly rely on. Driving the news: The Trump administration is backing open-weight models whil

She has President Trump 's endorsement and is a sympathetic figure after the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham . As Graham's temporary replacement, she's a symbol of the political brand he built over more than two decades in the Senate. Driving the news: Even so, Darline Graham faces an uphill battle to win a full Senate term in November, Republicans in D.C. and her home state of South Carolina tell Axios. South Carolina's rapidly approaching Aug. 11 primary has become a test of whether

"Choke point" is having a moment. Why it matters: The term is an increasingly popular shorthand for the bottlenecks tying up the oil market and the AI buildout — and sometimes the entire economy — as the old global economic order gives way to intensifying competition and outright war. Where it stands: The latest choke point is in the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has been routing more oil there via pipeline, bypassing the OG choke point in the Strait of Hormuz. Now, Iranian-backed Houthi militants are t

The pace of AI development combined with soaring compute costs is squeezing the AI researchers responsible for evaluating frontier models — just as those models' capabilitie s are becoming harder to measure. Why it matters: When safety testing can't keep pace, models capable of hacking companies or aiding in the development of bioweapons could reach the public before anyone knows what they can do. Last week's breach of Hugging Face, carried out autonomously by OpenAI's models in the middle of sa

House GOP leaders are turning up the heat on Senate Republicans, calling on them to move quickly on the House's $95 billion reconciliation package despite resistance from Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.). Why it matters: Before they split town, House leaders left some instructions for their Senate colleagues. "The Senate needs to move on reconciliation before November, and I think the pressure from the American people is going to be unbearable if they refuse to act," NRCC Chair Richard Hudson

Democrats are indicating to their Republican counterparts that they are prepared to vote as early as next week on a Russia sanctions package that includes an 11th-hour demand from President Trump that the bill also include Iran, according to people familiar with the matter. Why it matters: It would mark a rare bipartisan breakthrough on legislation to help end the war in Ukraine in a Senate that has spent much of the year engaged in partisan combat . It also would show that Majority Leader John

The Trump administration announced a new round of tariffs up to 12.5% on 60 trading partners on Thursday, preventing a lapse in import taxes as a temporary tariff program nears expiration. Why it matters: It shows the White House's determination to preserve its tariff agenda by turning to new trade laws as earlier authorities expire or face legal challenges. The new tariffs take effect at 12:01am ET on Friday, precisely when the temporary duties end. It's been one of the busiest weeks for Presid

The U.S. government will withdraw subpoenas of New York Times journalists over their reporting on President Trump's Qatari-gifted jet , the Department of Justice said in a Thursday court hearing. Why it matters: The Trump administration backed down in its battle with the media on the eve of the rescheduled White House Correspondents' Association Dinner, where the president is expected to speak. Driving the news: U.S. District Judge Arun Subramanian reportedly grilled the Trump administration in

Data: CDC ; Map: Brad Jennings/Axios. Note: Estimated rates calculated using CDC case range midpoints and 2025 U.S. Census population estimates. Cases of cyclosporiasis have now been reported in at least 41 states, and infection rates continue to increase in the five states where the CDC has declared an outbreak. The big picture: Although some cases of the diarrhea-inducing illness are reported each year, the outbreak will make 2026 the worst year on U.S. record for this food-borne parasitic inf