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AI appears to improve workers' efficiency in a number of sectors. The U.S. has experienced a surge in economy-wide productivity in the last couple of years. But the former isn't necessarily driving the latter. The big picture: Companies are achieving more output per person-hour of labor because they are making better use of existing capital, a provocative new analysis finds — not, at the moment at least, by making major use of AI. AI advances may be generating substantial micro-level gains in so

Iran launched multiple ballistic missiles toward a U.S. military base in Jordan on Tuesday in what U.S. Central Command described as an "attempted surprise attack." All of the missiles were intercepted, CENTCOM said in a statement . Why it matters: This marks Iran's first ballistic missile attack against a U.S. base in the region since President Trump paused strikes against Iran on Friday to give diplomacy another chance. The attack threatens to unravel the fragile pause and could force Trump to

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) demanded that Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) verbally address constituents and demonstrate his ability to serve or resign his seat in a blunt letter sent to the senator and his staff. The big picture: It's been more than 40 days since 84-year-old conservative stalwart McConnell has appeared outside of pictures released by his office after being hospitalized. His lengthy absence and past health scares are fueling speculation about his capacity to serve. Driving the ne

While Democrats across the country are pulling their hair out over Michigan's brutal Democratic Senate primary , a key House race in the state is also quietly giving party leaders heartburn. Why it matters: Infighting between establishment Democrats could create an opening for a progressive who many Democratic strategists and lawmakers are skeptical can win the seat in November. Moderate Democrats and party leaders' inability to coalesce behind a single candidate has become the source of conside

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met Tuesday with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick as the Trump administration investigates potential violations involving Nvidia chip exports to China, according to a source familiar. Why it matters: Huang is in Washington as the Trump administration finalizes a framework that would give the government early access to the most advanced AI models before their release. Officials are also weighing their approach to open-source AI and China. Driving the news: Huang is holdin

President Trump 's lawyers are asking the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the $83.3 million defamation judgment he was ordered to pay to E. Jean Carroll, Axios has learned. The judgment stemmed from Trump's 2019 statements in which he denied Carroll's claim that he'd sexually assaulted her in the 1990s and attacked her credibility, accusing her of making up the allegation. Driving the news: Trump's lawyers argue he's entitled to presidential immunity because he made the comments while he was serv

President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met in the Oval Office Tuesday for a "productive" 90-minute session on the Iran war — free of any public sign of tensions that have marked their relationship over the past several weeks. Why it matters: The meeting could have gone the other way, given Trump's frustration with the Israeli leader over the war, which he even alluded to publicly shortly before Netanyah arrived at the White House. The fact that both sides described it as p

Legal protections for hundreds of thousands of Haitians and Syrians in the U.S. have ended after the Supreme Court upheld the termination of their Temporary Protected Status, a ruling that could reshape the program's future. The big picture: The justices limited courts' ability to review Homeland Security's TPS decisions — making challenges harder and leaving hundreds of thousands of people at risk of losing legal status, work authorization and protection from deportation. Established in 1990, T

Dr. Anthony Fauci, who led the nation's infectious disease efforts during the COVID-19 pandemic , invoked the Fifth Amendment on Wednesday and declined to answer questions from a Senate committee investigating the origins of the coronavirus. Why it matters: Fauci said Homeland Security Chair Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was trying to get him to say something that could put him in legal jeopardy. Former President Biden preemptively pardoned Fauci before leaving office, but Fauci argues he could be in t

The nation's largest known cyclospora outbreak is straining Americans' trust in the food safety system — and could undermine the healthy-foods messaging from the Trump administration. Why it matters: It arrives as the administration urges Americans to eat more whole foods, even as health experts say recent cuts have weakened the public health infrastructure responsible for detecting outbreaks. The big picture: More than 11,000 confirmed or suspected cases of infection have been linked to the par

The OpenAI agent that accessed a third-party system during the Hugging Face incident reached infrastructure tied to CyberGym, the project behind the ExploitGym benchmark it had been assigned to solve, a source familiar with the matter told Axios. Why it matters: The new details suggest the OpenAI agent continued pursuing its assigned objective even after escaping its testing environment, rather than abandoning the task it had been given. Catch up quick: OpenAI's AI agent system accessed an asset

The Supreme Court's approval rating — long the highest among the three branches of government — has sunk to a record low, joining President Trump and Congress in drawing low public support. Why it matters: Americans aren't just unhappy with individual leaders. They're increasingly convinced the country's biggest institutions aren't working for them. By the numbers: 33% of Americans approve of the Supreme Court's performance, according to a Gallup survey of 1,200 adults conducted from July 1-19 —

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios in an interview Tuesday that he asked President Trump for an emergency "winter package" of Patriot air defense interceptors to help thwart Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Why it matters: Ukraine's stockpiles of the interceptors have been almost depleted, and without them the country can't defend itself against ballistic missiles. It was the reason Ukraine couldn't stop recent Russian attacks on Kyiv. If this problem isn't solv

👉 Watch a video version of this column. Republicans didn't decide to become President Trump's party . They surrendered to him, one stage at a time, over a decade, in plain sight. Democrats swear that socialism's growing grip on their party is different , and can be contained . The early signals suggest otherwise. Why it matters: Party transformations follow a predictable six-stage evolution — recoil, squint, rationalize, submit, amplify, and purge. Each stage has language you can hear long befor

The U.S. blood supply has reached crisis levels, prompting the American Red Cross and the Surgeon General's Office to urge people to donate. Why it matters: A prolonged blood shortage could delay surgeries, trauma care and other treatments that depend on timely blood transfusions. The Red Cross says it has "less than a one-day national supply of type O positive blood," which is the most commonly transfused blood type. Due to the shortage, the organization is limiting distribution of type O blood

Anthropic spent this winter and spring as the darling of America's AI boom, conquering the frontier while casting itself as the industry's moral conscience. By summer, the Claude maker had found itself alone on an island of its own principles. Why it matters: Anthropic is simultaneously the world's most valuable startup and its most isolated AI leader. The company's idiosyncrasies have strained its relationship with developers, policymakers and partners as it barrels toward a potential trillion-

House and Senate Republican leaders are heading to Dallas to embrace the president who has done the most to shape — and complicate — their political fortunes. Why it matters: Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson don't have much of a choice about attending September's midterm convention. President Trump doesn't tolerate high-profile dissent, and both leaders know their best chance of staying in power is by staying united. But for Republicans in tight races, the two-day political ex

Senate Majority Leader John Thune has one of the toughest jobs in Washington. It could get even harder next year. Why it matters: Thune is one of the few Republicans in Washington who's managed to say "no" to President Trump and still keep his job. But the Senate leader could enter the next Congress with diminished power, leading a conference whose loyalty increasingly lies with Trump. Republican control of Congress could be weakened , if not lost. The Senate's MAGA flank is poised to grow. And

President Trump 's controversial "self-deportation" program, which pays unauthorized immigrants to leave the U.S., is on pace to account for more than 200,000 departures, according to internal data shared with Axios. Why it matters: Launched last year alongside a multimillion-dollar ad campaign, the initiative is virtually the only carrot in an aggressive immigration crackdown that has been long on sticks. Through July 16, the nearly $600 million program — dubbed Project Homecoming by the Depart

In a massive show of bipartisanship, 86 senators voted to move forward with a Russia and Iran sanctions bill that had been championed by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham . Why it matters: The vote came hours after senators gathered to honor Graham's memory, and immediately following a closed-door meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy . The vote was 86-12. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was the only Republican to vote against it. It is a procedural vote, but leadership hopes that the strong bi

Data: International Energy Agency ; Note: In terrawatt-hours; Chart: Amy Harder/Axios A recent United Nations call to power data centers with renewable energy highlights a central tension in the AI boom: Renewables are rising, but so is reliance on fossil fuels. Why it matters: Electricity demand for data centers is projected to at least double in the next four years, and where that power comes from will influence investments — and the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions. Driving the news: Un

Data: Company reports, Funda via "Key Context"; Chart: Ben Berkowitz/Axios AI revenue is accelerating so fast that it's starting to dwarf some of the world's most recognizable brands. Why it matters: AI infrastructure spending forecasts in the trillions of dollars start to make at least a little more sense when investors see how they're paying off. By the numbers: OpenAI and Anthropic, combined, are on track for an annual revenue rate of about $120 billion, "Key Context" Substack author Tae Kim

House Republicans are pressuring the Senate to advance their reconciliation package as President Trump pushes for quick action. Why it matters: The roughly $95 billion package is House Republicans' latest effort to enact Trump's priorities without Democratic votes using the reconciliation process. The framework already cleared some early hurdles, but House Republicans are pressing the Senate to move quickly to keep Trump's legislative agenda on track before the midterm elections. The reconciliat

Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Donald Trump in the Oval Office Tuesday for the eighth time since the president returned to office. But the Israeli prime minister arrives at the White House weaker and less influential than the previous seven times. Why it matters: On Feb. 28, Trump and Netanyahu went to war together and it looked like there was no daylight between them. But exactly five months later, their interests have diverged more than ever — and bad blood and frustration have deepened as

Canadian travel to the U.S. fell 25% last year, according to a new Canadian government report, which says early 2026 data show the decline has persisted. Why it matters: The report provides some of the clearest measures yet of the economic cost to the U.S. tourism industry after trade tensions, tariffs and President Trump's repeated " 51st state " comments led many Canadians to vacation elsewhere. "Following the change in the U.S. administration in early 2025 and the implementation of America Fi

President Trump's economic assault on Iran has drawn a fraction of the attention devoted to his bombing campaign, even as senior U.S. officials believe it may ultimately do more damage to the regime in Tehran. Why it matters: U.S. intelligence and open-source media reports point to a deepening economic crisis inside Iran, including gasoline shortages in one of the world's most oil-rich countries. "The Iranians want to stop being bombed and they want money," a senior administration official said.

The small businesses behind high-profile legal challenges to President Trump's trade agenda are suing again to block his latest import taxes. Why it matters: The lawsuits set up another legal test of Trump's tariff agenda after courts this year rejected one tariff regime and another remains tied up in court. What's new: One lawsuit was filed on behalf of Burlap & Barrel, which previously challenged Trump's temporary Section 122 tariffs , and watch retailer Collective Horology. The other was brou

Senate Majority Leader John Thune is pulling off something today's Republicans rarely attempt: telling President Trump "no." Why it matters: Pressure from Trump and the MAGA base is piling up on Thune (R-S.D.), especially over a voter ID bill, but he has an important insurance policy: GOP senators have his back. "I think he's got strong support. I read all the stories, but I think mostly that's made up by reporters," Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) told Axios. "Leaders absorb some of the punishment, b

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said Monday that he has "never advocated" for a ban on open-weight AI models , rejecting accusations that his lab is seeking to shield its closed-model business from competition. Why it matters: Anthropic has become the most prominent holdout from a new industry push to defend open-weight AI, after Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Google, OpenAI and dozens of other companies signed a letter urging Washington not to restrict the technology. The push was triggered by the shock d

Data: MIT IT FutureTech and the University of Queensland ; Chart: Herb Scribner/Axios There is a one-in-five chance of AI gaining dangerous weapons capabilities or causing mass harm that could kill millions in the next five years, per global experts surveyed for a recent MIT study . Why it matters: The findings add to the growing debate over AI safety and cybersecurity as governments and companies race to deploy increasingly capable systems. Last week's news of an OpenAI model breaking containme

President Trump's economic sales pitch is colliding with voters' sour moods on high prices and the economy as the 2026 midterms loom. Why it matters: Economic frustration is giving Democrats an opening on the issue that often decides elections — and could help them erase Republicans' narrow congressional majorities in November. Trump has previously dismissed economic concerns, assuring voters that prices will come down and that affordability is an issue made up by political rivals to hurt his ad

What Axios' Alex Thompson is hearing from Democratic insiders about the party's most likely 2028 Democratic nominees, as told to Jim VandeHei for his weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter: 1. Kamala Harris. She is far ahead of every other contender with Black voters, still the most important voting bloc in a Democratic primary. Her allies argue that no one else is as prepared for a national campaign. She was a better candidate in 2024 than in 2020 and is working hard to be a better, more authentic, le

The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed. The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week. If the Federal Open Market Committee were to do so, it would suggest a new era in which the central bank is less predictable

President Trump told Axios on Monday that he decided to pause U.S. strikes on Iran in order to give negotiations another chance, but stressed that he could order a return to expanded military operations if diplomacy fails. Why it matters: The current negotiations are focused on a new deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and relaunch talks on a comprehensive nuclear deal. The talks are being conducted mainly between Iran and Oman, but Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Trump's envoys, Steve Witkof

Democrats are learning a hard lesson Republicans know all too well: The party out of power doesn't just ride the anti-incumbency wave — it can also get swept up in it. Why it matters: The populist energy surging through the left after President Trump's return to the White House is roiling Democratic primaries and fueling establishment fears about the party's general election chances. Just ask Senate Republicans how that went for them in 2010 , 2012 and 2022 . "We saw it in Missouri , we saw it i

Local backlash and reliability concerns are challenging the vision of an AI boom built quickly using large off-grid data centers. Why it matters: If giant projects stumble, trillions of dollars in AI investment and the industry's plans to rapidly expand data centers could be at risk. The big picture: In an effort to speed AI development, some companies are building data centers powered mainly by onsite generation rather than waiting years to connect to the electric grid. There are 59 data center

Some progressive Democrats are fuming that the party's new schedule for 2028 presidential primaries could make it harder for one of their own to win the party's nomination. A powerful Democratic National Committee panel voted Friday to kick off the primary in South Carolina — the state where progressive icon Bernie Sanders suffered landslide losses in the 2016 and 2020 primaries. Why it matters: The panel's decision came with Democrats already divided over a wave of contentious 2026 primaries th

A small but growing number of Democrats are embracing their own version of "America First" in response to Donald Trump 's ongoing war with Iran in partnership with Israel. Why it matters: Trump's war is scrambling the politics of a slogan he once owned, fracturing the right even as some Democrats — including potential 2028 presidential candidates — embrace it. Driving the news: Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Senate candidate in Michigan who campaigned with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York

The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East, Adm. Brad Cooper, recommended stopping the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz because it has reached the limit of its effectiveness, according to two sources with knowledge of his position. Why it matters: The recommendation by Cooper, the commander of the U.S. Military Central Command (CENTCOM), together with other advisers impacted President Trump's decision on Friday to pause U.S. strikes against Iran , the sources said. It was an

President Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Tuesday, a White House official confirmed to Axios. The big picture: The visit gives Zelensky a chance to shore up support in Washington after the death of one of Ukraine's congressional champions. It also comes as Russia intensifies its missile campaign. Trump and Zelensky last met earlier this month at the NATO summit in Turkey, where they discussed strengthening Ukraine's air defenses and diplomatic efforts

Data : The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals The midterm elections are 100 days out. Political reporter Hans Nichols, lead author of the Hill Leaders newsletter, shares his intel on the state of the races: The big picture: The House environment favors the Democrats. The terrain favors Republicans. The same is broadly true on the Senate side — except the structural advantages are even greater for Republicans. THE HOUSE — currently 218 Rs, 212 Ds, 1 independent,

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman heads to Washington this week to preview the company's most powerful AI yet, pushing for speedy approval of a model that just hacked a real company. Why it matters: He'll tout a model powerful enough to solve an 80-year-old math problem, breach another company's system unprompted and begin to make complex work more cost-efficient for U.S. business. What Sam will show: It does original science. An internal model solved the 80-year-old Erdős unit distance problem, the first p

With Congress on the sidelines, union contracts are among the strongest guardrails American workers have against artificial intelligence . Why it matters: Nearly 90% of the U.S. workforce lacks union representation, leaving about 130 million workers without that leverage as companies use AI to rewrite job descriptions and cut jobs. What they're saying: The only meaningful guardrails around workplace AI are happening "at the bargaining table , where workers are showing up and demanding protection

President Trump directed the U.S. military not to conduct new strikes in Iran on Friday, breaking a nearly two-week streak of daily attacks, two sources with knowledge of the decision said. Why it matters: The president's directive came after he approved daily strikes over the previous 13 days. It is unclear if Trump's order on Friday was a one-off or whether the lull will continue. Trump's decision reflects both his willingness to provide more space for diplomacy and a recognition that — short

Democrats selected former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson on Saturday to challenge Republican Sen. Susan Collins this fall after Graham Platner's embattled campaign ended. Why it matters: Jackson's selection is another win for the left flank of the Democratic party, which lined up behind another progressive candidate as their best shot at flipping one of the most important seats to win back Senate control. Driving the news: Delegates to a special nominating convention selected Jackson Saturd

AI's impact on American life isn't just at work . It's also at home, where it's helping with dinner and bedtime, learning our routines, overhearing arguments and never clocking out. Why it matters: The AI debate has largely focused on jobs and productivity . But a quieter shift is unfolding at home , where AI is also evolving from an on-demand assistant into an always-on presence that remembers, anticipates and increasingly acts like a member of the family. "The barriers to entry for families —

Data: CBPP ; Map: Sara Wise/Axios American food assistance has been rocked by a regulatory earthquake while millions have been dropped from one of the nation's premier safety net programs, tightening the strain on food banks and state agencies. The big picture: As the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) continues to undergo a historic remolding, food banks say they're staring down a gap they can't fill. "We've been operating kind of in emergency management mode," says Terri Shoemake

President Trump used his speech at Friday's rescheduled White House Correspondents' Association Dinner to condemn the political violence that postponed the annual event — and in the next breath attack and insult the gathered press. The big picture: The president opened with jokes to the hundreds of assembled journalists and even made a little fun of himself, in a speech that started light — before descending into a litany of familiar complaints about reporters and prominent Democrats. Zoom out: