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Some members of the Congressional Black Caucus want a condition for incoming Democrats seeking to join their ranks: You have to support House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) for speaker. Why it matters: Things could get dicey fast, as several Black Democrats who are all but guaranteed to be elected in November have declined to commit to voting for Jeffries. But Darializa Avila Chevalier wants in: The Afro-Latino nominee in New York's 13th District told Semafor she will seek to join both

The White House is excluding open models from its framework to test advanced AI capabilities, sources familiar with the matter told Axios. Why it matters: The voluntary framework will determine how the Trump administration reviews advanced AI models before release, but the White House isn't making it public. What's inside: The AI framework reviewed on Tuesday defines a covered frontier model as closed-source with state-of-the-art capabilities and national security risks, multiple sources briefed

Key sectors of the economy that spent years squeezed by high interest rates are gaining momentum. Why it matters: For years, manufacturing and construction were among the clearest signs that the Federal Reserve's tightening campaign — reversed only somewhat at the end of last year — was weighing on the economy. Now, manufacturing and construction are early sources of job growth, helped by an AI investment boom that has so far been unconstrained by still-high borrowing costs. What they're saying:

Embattled Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) said Tuesday that he'll file paperwork for an ethics investigation — into himself — amid a series of allegations involving his ex-wife. The big picture: Miller, a former Trump aide in a competitive reelection race, is facing domestic abuse allegations, which he has denied. What they're saying: "I have absolutely nothing to hide," Miller said in a Tuesday X post. "I am looking forward to my colleagues reading everything for themselves," Miller wrote, stating he'

Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) said Tuesday that he won't drop his reelection bid despite facing allegations of domestic abuse and violence from his ex-wife and two other women. Why it matters: Miller has until Wednesday to withdraw from the race, and President Trump has expressed concern that the embattled congressman could put a reliably Republican seat at risk in the midterms. What they're saying: When asked about his plans on Tuesday by CNN's Jake Tapper, Miller said he wouldn't withdraw, and poin

Ohio, the red state that helped fuel President Trump 's political comeback — and launched his presumed heir, JD Vance , onto the national stage — has become one of the GOP's biggest headaches for the midterms. Why it matters: Republicans are struggling up and down the ballot in the Rust Belt state, which transformed from a perennial battleground into a Republican stronghold under Trump. Ohio's GOP is scrambling under the weight of domestic abuse allegations, sluggish campaigns and a working-clas

The White House is excluding open models from its framework to test advanced AI capabilities, sources familiar with the matter told Axios. Why it matters: The voluntary framework will determine how the Trump administration reviews advanced AI models before release, but the White House isn't making it public. What's inside: The AI framework reviewed on Tuesday defines a covered frontier model as closed-source with state-of-the-art capabilities and national security risks, multiple sources briefed

OpenAI agreed Tuesday to pay $3.2 million to settle Justice Department allegations that it discriminated against U.S. workers by favoring temporary visa holders for jobs, according to the DOJ. Why it matters: Slapping a multimillion dollar fine on one of the world's biggest AI companies puts the tech sector on notice that Trump administration is cracking down on companies that game the visa system to bypass American talent. What they're saying: "It is illegal to discriminate against U.S. workers

The White House does not plan to publicly release its new framework for evaluating advanced AI models, three sources familiar with the discussions told Axios. Why it matters: The voluntary framework has global implications for AI security, but details will only be made available to the companies that are part of the process. Keeping it private means companies, policymakers, researchers and U.S. allies outside the process will be left guessing how the administration plans to implement one of its

Data: The Downballot, Dave's Redistricting Atlas, The Texas Tribune; Table: Andrew Solender/Axios House Democrats' campaign arm announced Wednesday it is adding a dozen districts that President Trump won handily in 2024 to their midterm target list . Why it matters: The additions are meant to project Democratic confidence that they can compete in solidly Republican territory come November. "House Democrats are expanding the battlefield deep into Trump terrain," Democratic Congressional Campaign

Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) dropped his re-election bid early Wednesday after the House Ethics Committee concluded he violated House rules over sexual harassment and creating a hostile work environment and recommended his censure. The findings follow Axios' reporting that Edwards singled out two young female staffers in their 20s for special attention that multiple sources described as inappropriate. Why it matters: Pressure has been mounting on Edwards to step aside since the Ethics Committee r

Progressives scored their biggest win of the year Tuesday in Michigan's Senate primary , narrowly defeating the Democratic establishment in the clearest sign yet of how a populist surge is remaking the party. Why it matters: Left-wing outsider Abdul El-Sayed underperformed predictions, but his victory over moderate Rep. Haley Stevens was still a rebuke to party leaders in D.C. and Michigan, and to big donors who flooded Stevens' campaign with cash. El-Sayed was outspent 9 to 1 by Stevens and her

Senate Republicans' planned vote this week on whether to hold Anthony Fauci in contempt of Congress is the latest escalation in their attempt to right perceived COVID-era wrongs and further disempower the federal health care bureaucracy. Why it matters: Critics fear the Senate Homeland Security Committee's efforts will deter scientific talent from taking government jobs, weakening America's public health infrastructure and ceding its dominance in biomedical innovation. Driving the news: The pane

Sunrise Movement co-founder Will Lawrence is the latest progressive candidate to notch an upset Democratic House primary win — this time in a key battleground district in Michigan . Why it matters: The seat is a top target for Democrats in November, but party leaders fear that Lawrence's left-leaning politics will make it much harder to win. Several top House Democratic moderates expressed the view to Axios last month that Lawrence cannot beat Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) in Michigan's 7th Distric

Michigan progressives woke up Wednesday after a banner night: Abdul El-Sayed leads the uncalled Democratic Senate primary, Will Lawrence won a battleground House nomination, and Donavan McKinney threatens to oust Rep. Shri Thanedar. Of the three Democratic primaries, only Lawrence's victory has been called. Why it matters: A sweep would signal the left's growing strength in a key swing state. The state's Democratic Socialists of America chapters, the Working Families Party and the United Auto Wo

The U.S., Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. aiming for a Wednesday announcement, according to two regional sources and a U.S. official. Why it matters: The deal, which has been under negotiations for several weeks, is aimed at resuming the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and restarting negotiations over a nuclear deal. President Trump decided on Saturday not to follow through on threats to unleash a massive bombing campaign, in

Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) defeated former Rep. Cori Bush in his primary on Tuesday, thwarting an attempt by left-wing groups, including the Democratic Socialists of America, to avenge Bush's 2024 loss. Why it matters: It's a win for the Democratic establishment in an election cycle where triumphs against left-wing insurgents have been few and far between. Bell's win was propelled in part by United Democracy Project, the super PAC arm of AIPAC, which spent more than $3 million to thwart Bush's com

State Rep. Donavan McKinney bested two-term incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar in Tuesday's Democratic primary to represent Michigan's 13th Congressional District. Why it matters: The lifelong Detroiter's win likely returns Detroit to Black representation in Congress, which ended with Thanedar's 2022 victory. It also brings another victory for a progressive-backed candidate. McKinney won by a slim 51.9% to 48.1%, with the race called late Wednesday morning by AP . State of play: Thanedar had the advan

Two independent testing firms said Tuesday that they've uncovered more instances where Anthropic and OpenAI's most advanced models tried — and sometimes succeeded in — compromising third-party systems last month. Why it matters: The incidents add to a growing string of disclosures showing frontier AI models taking unsanctioned actions against people, organizations and online services while trying to complete cybersecurity evaluations. State of play : The U.K. AI Security Institute, which evaluat

The share of business students regularly using AI has increased from 6.2% to 29% over the past three years, according to research from American University's Kogod School of Business , shared first with Axios. Why it matters: The chorus of AI boos at college graduations last spring doesn't tell the whole story: Students increasingly see AI as a critical job skill but want more guidance on using it responsibly. The big picture: Those commencement jeers aimed at AI boosterism captured real anxiety

At least a dozen states are reportedly responding to cyberattacks against local water systems . Why it matters: This appears to be one of the broadest known coordinated cyber campaigns against U.S. municipal water systems to date, validating years of warnings that poorly secured utilities could become attractive targets. Driving the news: Hackers have targeted water and wastewater utilities in at least 12 states, ABC News reported on Tuesday. Last week, the FBI said that at least seven states ha

Data: FactSet; Chart: Matt Phillips/Axios Who cares about war, oil prices, interest rates or an AI bubble? Investors apparently do not — for now at least — sending stocks back to record highs. Why it matters: High stock prices are critical to keeping funds flowing to the AI buildout. A significant erosion of investors' confidence in stocks would be a big risk to the AI flywheel of financial flows, capital expenditures and industrial activity driving the U.S. economy. Catch up quick: Some analyst

The Trump administration's rosy promises of a new "golden age" with 6% economic growth have fizzled on the realities of slower-than-anticipated growth and souring consumer sentiment. Why it matters: President Trump's roller coaster economy has risen with consumer spending and AI investment but also tumbled on tariff uncertainty, stubborn inflation and his Iran war, muddling the economic picture. Trump preaches a golden future, but many voters aren't buying it . That's a warning sign for the midt

Three consecutive polls have now shown Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in that state's crucial race for the U.S. Senate. The latest, released Tuesday morning, has Talarico up 47%-45%. Why it matters: That's within the survey's margin of error, and the Republican establishment isn't panicking — not yet, anyway. But there are some troubling signs for the GOP nominee among white and Latino voters. State of play: The private theory among top Republican off

This will be the first election cycle where AI is both a dominant policy debate — and a widely deployed political weapon. Why it matters: AI allows both candidates and bad actors to persuade and perplex with unprecedented speed, scale and precision in our elections. Watch what works, as those same techniques will likely be used against YOU. What to watch: Persuasion bots. Campaigns are training text bots to hold back-and-forth conversations in their candidate's voice. Some voters engage for HOUR

Authorities said Tuesday they arrested a suspect near President Trump's Los Angeles-area golf course ahead of his fundraising visit. The big picture: Jeanine John Taele, 38, of Downey, California, was arrested Sunday after deputies say they found a pistol and illegal ammunition in his vehicle in a parking lot at Trump National Golf Club in Rancho Palos Verdes, according to the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department. Zoom in: A suspect was "observed walking throughout the golf course grounds tak

Data: Financial Modeling Prep, Binance; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals For years, Truth Social was President Trump's money-losing megaphone. Now his company is charging Wall Street up to $1.2 million a year for a split-second edge on posts that can — and frequently do — jolt global markets. Why it matters: Trump has transformed his second term into the most lucrative venture of his entire career, raking in more than $2.2 billion in 2025 from his family crypto empire , legal settlements and vari

Top Pentagon officials are already pitching reconciliation 4.0 to Senate Republicans behind closed doors, underscoring the need for a massive boost in military funds, Axios has learned. Why it matters: Thune hasn't embraced reconciliation 3.0. The White House is already looking beyond it. Trump officials are quietly sketching out a lame-duck package that could pair significant Pentagon funding with other priorities, including a debt ceiling increase that will be necessary sometime in 2027. They

Former Rep. Jim Renacci told Axios in a phone interview Monday night that he may mount a comeback run for Congress if Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) drops his bid for reelection. Why it matters: As a former Republican nominee for U.S. Senate and congressman from the district, Renacci would likely be a serious contender to take Miller's place on the ballot. "I still know a lot of people, I still have good name recognition," Renacci told Axios. Miller, who is facing allegations of domestic abuse , has d

President Trump phoned Rep. Max Miller Monday and expressed doubts about the Ohio Republican's candidacy amid reports he assaulted his ex-wife and their child, three sources familiar with the call said. On the call, the president told Miller that "things aren't looking good" and repeatedly said his reelection would be tough, the three sources said. Miller, who denies hurting his wife and child, told the president he is staying in the race, one of the sources said. Miller said his own polling sho

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche will likely advance to a full Senate confirmation vote after he rescinded the order setting up President Trump's $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" fund Sunday. Why it matters: Blanche's Sunday order has won over Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who had held out on voting for Trump's pick. State of play: Cornyn and Tillis said in a joint statement that they will vote to advance Blanche's nomination. The senators said they had negotiated

The House Democratic Women's Caucus is calling on Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) to resign after the House Ethics Committee concluded he violated House rules over sexual harassment and creating a hostile work environment, according to a statement shared first with Axios. Why it matters: The Democratic Women's Caucus is arguing that censure — the punishment recommended by the bipartisan Ethics Committee — is not sufficient for Edwards. "A censure has no real consequences," Democratic Women's Caucus

Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said Tuesday she will vote against Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general . Why it matters: Collins' vote won't sink Blanche's nomination on its own . But it makes every remaining undecided Republican that much more important. With Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) still absent from the Senate, Blanche, who is serving in an acting capacity, can afford to lose only two GOP votes, assuming all Democrats oppose him. "While I believe Mr. Blanche is a capable lawyer, t

House Democrats are privately mulling whether to force a vote to expel Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) from Congress over domestic abuse allegations, which he denies. Why it matters: While it is rare for a House member to be forcibly ousted, the mere threat of expulsion has been enough to precipitate multiple resignations this year. One House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to offer candid insights into behind-the-scenes discussions, said they are "sure there will be" conversations thi

The House Ethics Committee found Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) violated House Rules by "failing to adhere to the spirit of rules prohibiting sexual harassment of and unwanted advances to House staffers," according to a 25-page report released Monday. Why it matters: The bipartisan committee recommended that Edwards be censured after concluding he "violated the Code of Official Conduct by failing to act in a manner that reflects creditably upon the House." Edwards did not immediately respond to Axi

Two people in Michigan have died in connection with the multistate cyclosporiasis outbreak, Michigan health officials said Monday, marking the first known deaths linked to the foodborne illness. Why it matters: Weeks into the national crisis that's sickened thousands of people, federal authorities still don't know for certain where it's coming from or why. Driving the news: Medical records show that the individuals who died "had significant underlying health conditions that may have been impacte

The U.S. and Japanese governments have acted together to try to prop up the value of the yen on global currency markets. The way they did it contains a clue about U.S. goals — and has some worrying implications for global markets. The big picture: Headline indicators have been steady across global financial markets this summer. Yet there are some signs of strains beneath the surface, particularly in the form of rising long-term borrowing costs at a time of elevated debt worldwide. The U.S. parti

Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh is reportedly weighing whether the central bank should hold fewer policy meetings each year. Why it matters: Cutting the Fed's meeting schedule would be the biggest change to the process of monetary policymaking in decades, reducing the procedural burden on staff but giving policymakers fewer routine opportunities to adjust interest rates as the economy changes. Driving the news: The New York Times reported Friday that Warsh raised the idea of holding fewer m

The White House said on Monday it met its deadline to establish a voluntary framework for evaluating advanced AI models — but it won't say what the framework contains, who's seen it or when companies will start using it. Why it matters: The framework is being closely watched beyond the industry players it directly applies to. Policymakers, AI safety advocates, and U.S. allies have been waiting to see what the rules for the most powerful models in the world look like. What they're saying: "The vo

America has been napping or distracted by trivialities while China is racing toward the future, in part by taking advantage of President Trump's trade, immigration and budget policies. That's the eye-opening reality that Evan Osnos unfurls in a 12-page piece for The New Yorker, "The Future, Made in China." Why it matters: China could beat the U.S. to the future on a host of fronts, including engineering a cure for cancer. What it says: "For China, America's retreat comes just as decades of state

Massive changes to Medicaid eligibility are entering a new phase as states begin implementing new work rules and patients face the first real risk of losing coverage. The big picture: The crunch period has started for states to get the word out and set up systems for many Medicaid enrollees to report at least 80 hours a month of work, school or volunteering or get an exemption. "If that goes wrong, people are going to be really, really upset, and that is a political firestorm that nobody wants,"

Climate adaptation is increasingly moving from planning to real-world action as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods and hurricanes test communities across the U.S. Why it matters: Even if greenhouse gas emissions decline, many communities are already facing more frequent or intense climate extremes, prompting officials to invest in infrastructure designed to reduce future damage. Driving the news: After catastrophic flooding killed more than 130 people in Texas Hill Country last year, newly

You're probably less than 600 days from Democrats having a true leader who can show and shape the party's direction. Why it matters: Until Super Tuesday — that's March 7, 2028 — or well beyond, Democrats will be leaderless, and likely split between rising socialist energy and more traditional, establishment liberalism. DNC Chair Ken Martin will likely get ousted and leave behind a hot financial mess and cashless dumpster fire. Hakeem Jeffries has a legit shot at rising to speaker, but will lack

Nearly eight months after President Trump predicted U.S. companies would "rapidly rebuild Venezuela's dilapidated oil industry" to boost production, no new petroleum deals have been finalized there with American firms. The U.S. Department of Energy is largely to blame, a dozen oil industry professionals, senior U.S. officials and Venezuela insiders tell Axios. Why it matters : The price of oil is climbing as the Iran war squeezes global supplies, spotlighting the absence of finalized deals in Ve

Wildfires in Washington and Oregon have forced evacuations, caused power outages, and burned hundreds of thousands of acres as firefighters battle dozens of massive fires across the Pacific Northwest. Why it matters: The blazes are among 99 active large fires burning across the U.S. as this year's wildfire season exceeds the 10-year average for both the number of fires and the acres burned, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. So far this year, 45,835 fires have burned more than 5.

Ohio GOP Rep. Max Miller said Sunday he will stay in his reelection race, using a livestream on X to deny allegations he abused his ex-wife and their young daughter. Shortly after his announcement, his ex-father-in-law, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio), denounced him as a "danger" to his daughter and unfit for office. Why it matters: The extraordinary public split between two Trump -aligned Ohio Republicans comes days before the state's deadline to replace Miller on the ballot with a special election

Gavin Newsom is quietly banking a lot of goodwill among party organizers and elected officials in states — particularly in the South — that will be key in the midterms and the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Newsom has raised more than $1.7 million for critical state parties and their legislative committees so far this two-year cycle, according to data reviewed by Axios. Why it matters: State party leaders told Axios that the California governor has raised more for them than any other prom

Jon Ossoff is having a moment. But some Democratic insiders are questioning whether he's the real deal — or if a few slickly produced videos are making him look like more of a political juggernaut than he is. Why it matters: The Georgia senator, 39, has catapulted into the 2028 conversation by making liberals on social media swoon over his viral clips of high-energy rallies and sharp takedowns of President Trump and Republicans. Our conversations with Democratic strategists in Georgia and beyond

The Wall Street Journal opinion page tried to stop Donald Trump a decade ago and again in 2024. Now, the standard-bearer of traditional conservatism is making an early case against his presumed heir. Why it matters: Vice President JD Vance has the inside track for Trump's endorsement. But there's a not-insignificant GOP faction that never embraced Trump's overhaul of the party — and is already arguing against handing the reins to Vance. Driving the news: In a series of recent columns, Journal op

Six months after Nancy Guthrie was taken against her will from her Arizona home in the middle of the night, there are no suspects or major leads and the case seems to be stalled, a source close to the investigation tells me. "There is plenty of blame to go around, but there is growing pressure to solve this case," the source said. "This case has struck a chord — people are watching very closely. This can't go on for another six months ." Savannah Guthrie , the "Today" show co-host and Nancy's da