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Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) vowed Saturday to force a House vote to block Russian oil purchases, challenging President Trump's diesel deal with President Vladimir Putin. Why it matters: Trump has touted the deal as a way to lower fuel prices, but it could also provide revenue for Russia's war in Ukraine. Driving the news: Fitzpatrick, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, said he would introduce the "Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act" and force a vote through a discharge petiti

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's announcement that the Fort Hood shooter's execution will be livestreamed reflects a shift toward putting raw, real-world violence on display for unlimited audiences. Why it matters: The Trump administration has made a show of flexing American power, sometimes with grisly footage. Now, it's preparing to make the government's ultimate punishment available for all to see. The big picture: Americans are increasingly encountering shocking images on their phones, often

Poll after poll spells trouble for GOP candidates — in purple states and deep-red ones alike — but while Democrats see a blue wave coming, some Republicans see a polling mirage. Why it matters: Pollsters worry they're flying partly blind. Even a modest polling error could mean the difference between Republicans retaining control of Congress and President Trump facing Democratic majorities in both chambers. The big picture: Polling Trump voters has long been notoriously difficult. The polls under

President Trump lashed out late Friday night after he once again did not win the Nobel Peace Prize he has openly coveted . Why it matters: The award is Trump's white whale, an honor he talks about frequently and believes he deserves. This year's prize went instead to a former judge of a court Trump has sanctioned and called "rogue" and "evil." Navi Pillay, the winner, reacted to the award by saying world leaders have a "legal obligation to protect human rights and refrain from war," according to

President Trump called Saturday for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky with someone willing to make a deal with Russia to end the war. Why it matters: Trump's attack on Zelensky came after the Ukrainian president criticized his diesel deal with Russia and signals the most serious crisis between the two leaders since their February 2025 meeting exploded in front of cameras. Driving the news: Trump announced Friday he had reached a deal with Russia to lift sanctions to allow Russian d

President Trump decided to make a diesel fuel deal with Russia after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios. Why it matters: Trump's deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin sparked a new crisis with Ukraine and threatens to derail a new push by the Trump administration for a deal to end the war. "Zelensky is misreading the room. By continuing to hit refineries, he is e

Pete Buttigieg has been able to campaign for Democrats across the country more than many of his potential 2028 rivals this past year. One reason: He doesn't have a job. That's by choice. Buttigieg said no when top Democrats urged him to run for governor or the U.S. Senate in Michigan this year. Why it matters: That decision is a gamble for Buttigieg's presidential ambitions. He's been able to build a national network over the last two years but hasn't added to his relatively thin resume as a for

Pope Leo said Sunday tests had discovered a nodule in his lung , which he will have removed surgically this week. The big picture: The first American pontiff , aged 71, is less than 18 months into a papacy that has been defined by public stances at odds with the White House , including clashes over immigration and deep skepticism about AI. What he's saying: "Dear friends, during some recent medical examinations, doctors found a localized nodule in my lung. It was detected at a very early stage a

President Trump's announcement Sunday about an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine referred to a potential deal that includes each side stopping attacks on oil refineries — and he expects Volodymyr Zelensky to abide by it, a White House official said. The official said if attacks on oil refineries cease, a deal to stop hitting power plants and energy grids could come next. Why it matters: Trump appears to be singlehandedly trying to will a partial ceasefire into existence. But for now

Hollywood's hottest villain right now is the tech billionaire. Four films hitting theaters this fall put some of Silicon Valley's most powerful and controversial figures in the spotlight: Elon Musk , Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman and Elizabeth Holmes. Why it matters: Hollywood's portrayal of Silicon Valley and its leaders is getting darker as negative headlines about the tech industry seep into pop culture. Once portrayed as brilliant but flawed innovators, tech leaders are increasingly being cast

President Trump claimed Sunday that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an " energy ceasefire " and will halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells Axios the announcement "was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree." Why it matters: An " energy ceasefire" would be a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough ahead of the winter. It remains unclear if Russia indeed agreed to stop the strikes. Trump made a similar announcement

America's youth sports boom is quietly rewriting Sunday mornings, turning the family calendar into a competition between the pews and the playing fields. Why it matters: For generations, churches helped organize American family life around a shared weekly ritual. Youth sports are increasingly filling that role on Sundays — reshaping what families treat as sacred time. The U.S. has undergone one of its fastest religious shifts in modern history, marked by a rapid increase in the religiously unaff

Both parties will be pressured to intervene more in markets after the midterms as economic frustration animates the new Congress, according to an FGS Global sketch of 2027 Washington scenarios, shared first with Axios. Why it matters: In a Trump-dominated Washington, Congress ceded much of its power and relevance. That'll change three weeks from Tuesday if Democrats win the House, as expected, and perhaps the Senate in the midterms. The new analysis by FGS , a worldwide strategic leadership advi

Federal agents conducted a pre-dawn search Monday at the Washington home of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) as part of an ongoing immigration probe, a DOJ spokesperson confirmed to Axios. Why it matters: Searching Omar's home marks a substantial escalation of the Trump administration's fight with the outspoken progressive, who has condemned the immigration crackdown in her state. It's also an unusual move against a candidate less than a month before an election , something the Justice Department has t

Stanford University's Robert E. Hall and Columbia University's Michael Woodford won the Nobel Prize in economics for research on how policymakers can stabilize economies , the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said on Monday. Why it matters: Their work helped shape how central banks set interest rates and communicate policy. The win comes as those institutions fight energy-driven inflation and risks to economic growth. Zoom out: For decades, policymakers relied on economic models that linked hig

A top Trump political operative has been tapped to help boost Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall 's campaign in the weeks before the Nov. 3 election , the latest sign of how Republicans are scrambling to defend the red-state seat. Why it matters: The hiring of veteran strategist Chris Grant reflects the GOP's growing anxiety over Kansas' Senate race . Marshall is running neck and neck with Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state President Trump won by 16 points in 2024. Republicans fear losing Kansas could be

President Trump has privately shared misgivings about livestreaming the firing-squad execution of a former Army major who murdered 13 people at Fort Hood in Texas, according to four people who have spoken with the president. Why it matters: Trump has been deluged with "negative input" about the idea from a bipartisan chorus of lawmakers as well as advisers inside and outside of his White House, a senior administration official said. A livestream of former Army Maj. Nidal Hasan's execution on Dec

Republicans already saddled with Trump's unpopular policies in the midterms now face another awkward choice: whether to back his diesel deal with a dictator many of them despise. Why it matters: The agreement President Trump struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday is designed to ease the cost of living for U.S. consumers. But Republicans who pleaded for help with fuel prices now face a fresh dispute over Russia, with energy analysts questioning whether the deal will deliver the relie

A federal judge on Sunday ordered the Trump administration to immediately halt taxpayer-funded ads featuring President Trump. Why it matters: The ruling temporarily blocks the ads weeks before November's midterm elections as multiple lawsuits challenging the Trump administration's use of taxpayer money play out in court. Sunday's ruling stems from a suit filed in the Southern District of New York by Washington, D.C.-based watchdog Common Cause, non-profit Democracy Forward and other plaintiffs.

British Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the U.K. House of Commons Monday that Iran's Revolutionary Guard was "almost certainly" behind the suspected plot to attack the RAF Fairford base where U.S. bombers were stationed. Why it matters: This was the first time the U.K. officially blamed Iran for the alleged planned attack . What he's saying: "I can confirm our assessment that it is highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by the IRGC. We will not tolerate these

Data: RealClearPolitics , American Presidency Project ; Note: Nebraska's Senate race is between a Republican and an independent; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Move over Wisconsin and Arizona. With Democrats making Republicans sweat in a host of red-state Senate races , a new batch of swing states may be emerging. Why it matters: Some of the closest Senate races are in Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and even Kansas. Sure, this could be a blip — or a reminder that it's a 50-50 moody nation, even in a bunch

Supporters of "Medicare for All" now outnumber opponents by nearly 2-to-1, according to a new survey of U.S. adults from the Axios-Ipsos American Health Index . The big picture: Two-thirds of all survey respondents — and half of Republicans — said the federal government should be willing to spend more tax dollars to lower health care costs for Americans. Why it matters: With three weeks to go before the midterm elections, and private health insurance premiums and prescription prices crushing vot

The trillion-dollar AI race is moving from software to silicon, as Microsoft's massive bet on its proprietary Maia chips proves Big Tech wants to wean itself off Nvidia's dominance. Why it matters: Microsoft's plan to power its AI products with custom silicon shows how every major Nvidia customer is now a competitor, seeking lower costs, improved performance and more control. The shift is particularly significant for inference — the computing needed to generate AI responses — as more sophisticat

The amount of AI-related infrastructure exposed to the public internet jumped 63% in nine months, according to new Censys data shared first with Axios. Why it matters: The AI boom isn't just creating new models and chatbots. It's creating a sprawling layer of software that companies will also need to inventory, patch and secure. Threat level: Many of these tools connect AI applications to sensitive corporate data and other services, creating potential entry points for hackers looking to access c

Data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FactSet; Chart: Axios/Matt Phillips; Note: After-tax profit data includes inventory and capital depreciation adjustments. Corporate America is raking in record profits, luxuriating in luscious margins and capturing the largest chunk of the country's income on record. Why it matters: The corporate bonanza is bolstering the stock market, but it may also be playing a role in the persistently sour sentiment among the American electorate. The latest: Tuesday is

Europe is testing a new response to China Shock 2.0 , betting that it can confront Beijing's export juggernaut without resorting to President Trump's tariff-heavy approach. Why it matters: More of the world is beginning to confront the threat that China's industrial overcapacity poses to their industries. But protecting individual sectors will not solve the bigger problem: China's factories are cranking out far more than its own economy can absorb. Driving the news: The European Union and China

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth plans to livestream the December execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan by using a firing squad, one of the rarest forms of capital punishment in the United States. Why it matters: The planned livestream would mark the first public U.S. execution in roughly 90 years, but it has already drawn scrutiny , with President Trump expressing doubt it'll happen. Catch up quick: Hegseth said Oct. 8 that Hasan, who was convicted of killing 13 people in the 2009 shooting ,

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said her office is probing Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) financial disclosures, the day after federal agents searched the congresswoman's Washington, D.C. home. The big picture: It's another example of the administration's escalating fight with the progressive lawmaker, who has clashed with the White House over its immigration crackdown — and whom President Trump has labeled as "crooked." Driving the news: Asked about a prior ethics probe into financial filings from the

Congressional Democrats' private text chains lit up with fear and anger on Monday after Department of Homeland Security agents searched Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D-Minn.) home in Washington, D.C. Why it matters: The search came less than a month before the midterms , immediately setting off alarm bells among Democrats that "more October surprises" could be coming, as one senior Democrat told Axios. Rep. Becca Balint (D-Vt.) told Axios: "We expect more of this kind of thing." Driving the news: Homeland

Kimberly Guilfoyle , the U.S. ambassador to Greece, announced her resignation Tuesday, shortly after the White House asked her to step down and following reports alleging misconduct before and during her diplomatic posting. Why it matters: The exit of the president's longtime political ally and former fiancée of his son Donald Trump Jr. follows a series of Wall Street Journal reports alleging she used her political connections to seek financial favors and promote private business interests. Guil

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump last week discussed the possibility of launching a major new operation against Iran before the Israeli and U.S. elections, according to two U.S. officials, one Israeli official and a fourth source with knowledge of the matter. Netanyahu said during the call that he was concerned about Israeli intelligence indicating Iran was taking troubling steps to reconstitute its nuclear program, according to the Israeli official. The Israeli lead

Pope Leo has been diagnosed with lung cancer, the Vatican said Tuesday. Why it matters: The Vatican disclosed the pontiff's health news just hours after he underwent surgery to remove the lower lobe of his right lung . What they're saying: "The surgery was completed successfully, within the expected timeframe and as planned, and the holy father has returned to his room," per a Holy See Press Office statement published Tuesday. The office said in that statement it would provide more information s

The Treasury Department on Tuesday announced more than $1.2 billion in penalties against Bank of America for years of failures to report suspicious transactions and address shortcomings in its anti-money-laundering program. Why it matters: The action includes the third-largest penalty in Treasury history. What they're saying: "Today's actions send a clear message that even the biggest financial institutions are not above the law," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a press release . The bi

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) needs Latino voters to stick with Republicans as they did in 2024. But new polling shows they're drifting back toward Democrats at levels not seen in years. Why it matters: Latino voters souring on President Trump has been part of the mood music of the president's second term. Democrats hope this helps them replicate the landslide from Trump's first midterm in 2018. The big picture: Democrats have their widest lead of the year against Republicans, 57% to 31%, o

President Trump is turning to Vladimir Putin to help ease a global diesel crunch, setting up a clash between Washington's energy priorities and its efforts to pressure Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Why it matters: The fuel shortage is among the most severe effects of the Iran war and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Average U.S. diesel prices remain far above $6 per gallon, adding to GOP headwinds in the midterm elections. Trump says his deal will help bring costs down. Catch up q

President Trump's deal to lift sanctions on Russia to increase diesel supplies "is a betrayal of the people of Ukraine" and "a gift to our adversary," a bipartisan coalition of senators wrote in a letter admonishing the agreement. Why it matters: The decision to turn to Vladimir Putin in an attempt to ease the diesel crunch is piling onto Republican headaches ahead of the midterms and fueling fresh friction between the U.S. and Ukraine. What they're saying: The deal "will not achieve just ends,

Cities and researchers are using AI to map and predict extreme heat risk, but new research suggests it's used far more to identify where people are in danger than to help officials respond. Why it matters: As climate change intensifies extreme heat, better predictions won't protect vulnerable communities unless governments can turn them into action. U.S. deaths associated with high temperatures rose 53% from an annual average of 2,670 in 2000–2009 to more than 4,000 in 2010–2020, according to a

Advocates for AI safety and regulation are emerging as a force in U.S. elections, spending nearly $50 million this election cycle on candidates who favor regulation, a new analysis shared exclusively with Axios shows. Why it matters: The safety spending points to the unusual power dynamics in the AI race, where researchers shape policy and regulation in ways that differ at times from the priorities of the companies where they work. The researchers add to the advocacy and giving of an array of AI

AI tools are now exacerbating a largely hidden problem that frontier AI companies have been contending with for years: the risk that employees will exploit their access to spy on their employers. Why it matters: The same AI tools that companies are racing to release can also help people plan crimes and develop the technology to carry them out, creating another security headache for the companies building them. Driving the news: Federal prosecutors charged Abdulrahman Alfozan, a Saudi national wh

Data: Gallup ; Chart: Axios Americans' trust in their fellow citizens' democratic judgment has fallen to its lowest recorded level in more than five decades, according to a new Gallup survey. The big picture: Americans' growing distrust of political leaders and institutions now extends to one another, with Democrats and Republicans showing similar levels of skepticism. By the numbers: 51% of U.S. adults have a great deal or fair amount of trust in Americans as a whole to make democratic judgment

Apple's big new hardware bet for the AI era is here, and it's a ... smart display? Why it matters: Cue the time machine and let's head back to 2014, when Amazon's Alexa shocked the tech world and led us to imagine a Jetsons-style home would be ours in the near future. It wasn't, but Apple believes it could come soon. The iPhone maker is betting that modern AI can finally make good on that vision, unveiling a slew of new smart home devices Tuesday. Between the lines: While the smart home has larg

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics ; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios U.S. inflation picked up in September as soaring energy prices added to already stubborn price pressures, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Why it matters: The latest Consumer Price Index shows that the inflation fight is far from over — and makes further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes more likely as Americans struggle with higher costs. By the numbers: CPI rose 0.6% in September from the prior month, with the annual infl

The Trump administration is threatening emergency court action unless California officials investigate potential ineligible voters within 48 hours and set aside ballots from anyone whose citizenship they cannot verify, according to two letters sent to state officials from the Justice Department. Why it matters: With voting already underway, President Trump 's DOJ could delay ballots from eligible Californians mistakenly flagged as noncitizens and set up a court fight just three weeks before Elec

Republicans who haven't faced serious reelection fights in years are suddenly campaigning like they're running in swing districts. Why it matters: Democrats are eyeing House districts so Republican that they weren't even on the party's radar at the start of the 2026 midterm election cycle. That includes incumbents like Reps. John McGuire (R-Va.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), neither of whom were seen as remotely vulnerable coming into the second Trump term. Most of these seats haven't elected a

Speaker Mike Johnson's sudden frank talk about his political future is upending the quiet maneuvering ahead of a post-election GOP leadership contest. Why it matters: The race could become a three-way fight if Johnson follows former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's example and tries to stay in leadership if Republicans lose the majority. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) has widely been viewed as a top contender for the job — and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) did not seek a waiver to remain Judiciary chair

ICE is rejecting a Government Accountability Office recommendation for technology that automatically activates body cameras when weapons are drawn and safeguards to ensure agents record arrests, searches and detentions when required. Why it matters: The GAO warns that ICE risks losing crucial evidence on what happened during incidents involving force amid growing distrust over agent accountability in the wake of multiple fatal ICE shootings . The big picture: The GAO report found both CBP and IC

America's inflation problem is becoming harder to contain, with new evidence Wednesday that price pressures are extending beyond the war-related energy shock rattling the global economy . Why it matters: Inflation is squeezing household budgets and dimming hopes for relief. It is also increasing the prospect that the Fed will have to raise interest rates further. What they're saying: "Higher energy costs are beginning to seep into broader services prices, increasing the risk that this inflation

Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) delivered another debate performance tailor-made for social media Tuesday night, feeding the presidential speculation he insists is entirely misplaced. Why it matters: A darling of the Democratic internet and a favorite to win the party's nomination in 2028, Ossoff emphatically ruled out a White House bid and pledged to serve a full six-year Senate term if re-elected. "He is running. He's going to be your DSA candidate," Republican challenger Rep. Mike Collins countered,

Data: Social Security Administration; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios Social Security recipients will see the largest rise in their monthly payments in four years in January, with a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment. Driving the news: The Social Security Administration announced the 2027 COLA adjustment for 76 million recipients of retirement and disability benefits, which by law is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for the July-through-September quarter. That will increase the average retiree's

President Trump has directed his White House counsel to examine explosive allegations dropped on him Friday in the Oval Office: Former Trump attorney Alina Habba told the president that another one of his top advisers — former Kennedy Center leader Ric Grenell — failed to deposit a multimillion-dollar donation that her billionaire husband made to the center a year ago, according to four senior administration officials and three insiders briefed on the controversy. Grenell denied the accusations