Tomer Tunguz
实时热榜
- 01A Winner in Every CategoryDespite historic lows in public software multiples, each category has one name at a large premium to its peers: CrowdStrike 3.9x its Security median, Cloudflare 3.4x Infrastructure, Shopify 8.1x Commerce. Most disclose no AI revenue. Since 2021 the ceiling fell from 100x to 34x & only eleven names clear 10x.
- 02AI Harness' ARR MultiplesThree AI companies crossed $100m ARR within nine months & were valued at 50x, 56x & 100x revenue. Growth rate does not explain the gap: the fastest grower priced near the bottom. The premium tracks category position instead.
- 03The Secret Chat RoomA plain-language timeline of the OpenAI-Hugging Face incident presented at Black Hat USA 2026. A forgotten file led one AI agent to leave a note on a shared system, other agents answered, & a secret chat room formed that they used to trade exploits, escalate to administrative control of OpenAI infrastructure, & take over Hugging Face production servers in 13 hours. It concludes that security is now the highest priority in AI & that zero-trust must extend to friendly agents.
- 04Spending Like a HyperscalerSpaceXAI reported $18.37b of capex in its first public quarter, $15.83b of it AI infrastructure, against a $13.2b consensus. Amazon spent $53.1b in the same quarter, Alphabet $44.9b, Microsoft $41.0b & Meta $31.1b, & sequential dollar additions were comparable across all five. The difference is funding : operating cash flow covers 155% of capex at Microsoft & 106% at Meta but only 12% at SpaceXAI, with Oracle at 89%, Alphabet 87%, Amazon 84% & CoreWeave 39%. Both markets have repriced it, with S
- 05Racing to Sustain Jevons' ParadoxHyperscalers declared AI capacity-constrained on Q2 2026 calls. HBM3e memory rose 20% & HBM4 is forecast to double, while B200 spot rentals have held flat. Model makers are segmenting into premium, mid-market, & value tiers to keep Jevons' paradox alive through the coming shock.
- 06AI is a Terrible GhostwriterIn the age of slop, readers test authenticity. I lace posts with subliminal sincerity — the ampersand, neologisms, grammatical plumes, mimicry. Then AI edits it all. I've never had a ghost writer, but I did have a human editor. Was that any different?
- 07AWS's Road to a TrillionAWS grew 36.7% in Q2 2026 to $42.2b, its fastest in 18 quarters, narrowing Azure's lead from 16 points to 6. Jassy said AWS has the potential to become a $1 trillion annual revenue business, against a current $169b annualized run rate. Amazon raised 2026 capex to $220b and trailing free cash flow fell to negative $7.6b.
- 08Microsoft Resells the FrontierGoogle owns its models & chips & spends aggressively on the margin that ownership captures, while Microsoft resells both layers & hedges with capacity it can stop buying.
- 09Aftermarket HarnessesThe harness now moves the coding benchmark more than the model does. Endor Labs' Agent Security League found GPT-5.5 scored 61.5% functional correctness in Codex & 87.2% in Cursor, & Claude Opus 4.7 scored 87.2% in Claude Code & 91.1% in Cursor. Input tokens are 86-98% of OpenRouter volume, so the harness controls most of the bill through cache discipline. First-party co-design buys real cache hit rates, but a third-party harness can match them.
- 10Yeltsin in the AI AisleA year-old GPT-OSS-120b still serves 36% of Claude Opus 4.8's daily token volume on OpenRouter because the inference market has segmented across cost, speed, & accuracy. GLM 5.2 now out-serves the frontier at 495B tokens a day, & Opus 5 shipped to contest the open-weight field. Mixture-of-experts lets a 118B model decode at the cost of a 26B model, moving the boundary of the local segment.
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